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«SERGE GUILLAS (as of August 2012) Department of Statistical Science Office phone: +44 (0)20 7679 1867 University College London Fax: +44 (0)20 7383 ...»

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SERGE GUILLAS (as of August 2012)

Department of Statistical Science

Office phone: +44 (0)20 7679 1867

University College London

Fax: +44 (0)20 7383 4703

Gower Street

E-mail: s“dot”guillas“at”stats.ucl.ac.uk

London WC1E 6BT

United Kingdom


University Paris VII (Denis Diderot) Mathematics B.S. 1992

University Paris XI (Orsay-Paris Sud) Mathematics M.S. 1993

University Paris XI (Orsay-Paris Sud) Mathematics Agr´gation e 1995 University Paris VI (Pierre et Marie Curie) Statistics M.S. 1998 University Paris VI (Pierre et Marie Curie) Statistics Ph.D. 2001 University of Chicago Statistics Post doctoral 2002-2004


Reader (US Assoc. Prof.), Dept of Statistical Science, University College London, UK, 2009Lecturer (US Asst. Prof.), Dept of Statistical Science, University College London, UK, 2007-2009 Assistant Professor, School of Mathematics, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA, 2004-2007 Postdoctoral Research Associate, Center for Integrating Statistical and Environmental Science (CISES) and Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, USA, 2002-2004 Instructor, Ecole des mines de Douai (engineering school), France, 1996-2002


US EPA 2005 Stratospheric Ozone Protection Award (member of Ozone Science Tiger Team)


Researcher Fellow, Program on Uncertainty Quantification, Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute (SAMSI), USA, Sept.-Dec. 2011.

Leverhulme Trust Research Fellow, Stratospheric ozone and climate change, Jan. 2011-Dec. 2012 ´ Visiting Professor, Ecole Normale Sup´rieure de Cachan, France, July 2011 e Visiting Fellow, Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge University, UK, Programme on Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Modelling and Prediction, Oct.-Dec. 2010 Visiting Professor, Universit´ Charles-de-Gaulle-Lille 3, France, Sept. 2010 e ´ Visiting Professor, Ecole Normale Sup´rieure de Cachan, France, June 2009 e Visiting Professor, Universit´ Charles-de-Gaulle-Lille 3, France, Sept. 2008 e Visiting Fellow, Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge University, UK, Programme on Statistical Theory and Methods for Complex, High-Dimensional Data, June 2008 New Researcher Fellow, Program on Development, Assessment and Utilization of Complex Computer Models, Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute (SAMSI), USA, 2006-2007


European Environment Agency (EEA) expert on air quality trends, Copenhagen, 02/2012.

Associate Editor, Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 2011Grant reviewer: City University of Hong Kong, 2011; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), 2012; Grant reviewer and panelist: US National Science Foundation (NSF), 2012.

Journal reviewer for Amer. Statist.; Ann. I.S.U.P.; Environmetrics; J. Agric Biol Environ Stat.; J. Statist.

Plann. Inference; AStA Adv. Stat. Anal.; J. Royal Stat. Soc., Ser B; J. Environ. Manage.; J. Comput.

Graph. Statist.; Comput. Statist. Data Anal.; Chemosphere; Climate Dynamics ; J. Geophys. Res.; J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys.; J. Multivariate Anal.; J. Nonparametric Stat.; Oxford B. Econ Stat.; Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A ; Proc. R. Soc. London, Ser. A; Risk Anal.; Simul. Model. Pract.


Organizer, Workshop Uncertainty Quantification for Climate and Environmental Models, UCL, June 2012 (http://www.ucl.ac.uk/statistics/research/stochastic/workshop29June) Group leader, parallel computing for climate model uncertainties working group, SAMSI, USA, Fall 2011 Organizer, Workshop Tsunamis in Port Cities from Generation to Impact, UCL, August 2011 Natural Sciences tutor, UCL-Statistical Science, 2009-2011.

Member, Executive Committee, UCL Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction (IRDR), 2010UCL Legion High Performance Cluster Computing, Mathematical Sciences consortium leader, 2008Study abroad and affiliate students tutor, UCL-Statistical Science, 2008Departmental champion, EPSRC-UCL-Bridging the Gaps: Sustainable Urban Spaces, 2008-2011.

Member, Departmental Research Committee, UCL-Statistical Science, 2008Seminar organizer, UCL-Statistical Science, 2007-2009.

Invited contributor to the 2006 World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Environment Programme (WMO/UNEP) Ozone Assessment.

Group leader, Air quality working group, SAMSI, USA, Fall 2006 Co-organizer, CISES Seminar, University of Chicago, USA, 2003-2004 Elected member, national faculty committee, Ecoles des mines engineering schools, France, 2001-2002


1. Principal Investigator, Uncertainty Quantification Pipeline for Climate Models, EU-FP7-PASCAL2 (2012).

2. Co-Investigator, Probability, Uncertainty and Risk in the Natural Environment, NERC consortium grant.

Work Package Leader for “Natural hazard model limitations through comprehensive quantification of uncertainties”, 2012-2016.

3. Principal Investigator, Leverhulme Trust Research Fellowship, Stratospheric ozone and climate change, 01/2011-12/2012.

4. PhD fellowships and funding sources: Farha Alkuwari, start 01/2009, University of Qatar; Andria Sarri, start 09/2010, UCL-IRDR; Ah Yeon Park, start 04/2011, Kwanjeong Educational Foundation; Kai-Lan Chang, start: 09/2011, Taiwan Ministry of Education; Xiaoyu Liu, start: 09/2012, China Scholarship Council (CSC).

5. UCL Grand Challenge of Sustainable Cities:“Tsunamis in Port Cities from Generation to Impact” workshop funding, 2011.

6. EPSRC-UCL-Bridging the Gaps, sustainable urban spaces (UCL internal grants): open program (2008), staff exchange program (2009), escalator fund (2009), grant writing support (2010), network of sensors (2010), conference (2011).

7. UCL Centre for the Advancement of Learning and Teaching (CALT), Academic Development Grant “European PhD in Statistics”, 2010.

8. London Mathematical Society: overseas invitation grants (2008 and 2009)

9. Faculty Development Grant, Georgia Tech Foundation, 2006

10. Co-Principal Investigator, US EPA STAR Grant, Center for Integrating Statistical and Environmental Science, University of Chicago, 2004-2007

11. French Air Quality Agency (LCSQA), “Statistical methods for the prediction of pollution peaks”, 2000


1. Guillas S., Non-causality and functional discretization, limit theorems for ARHX(1) processes [in French], C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, 331, S´rie I, 91-94, 2000.


2. Guillas S., Rates of convergence of autocorrelation estimates for autoregressive Hilbertian processes, Statistics and Probability Letters, 55, n.3, 281-291, 2001.

3. Damon J., Guillas S., The inclusion of exogenous variables in functional autoregressive ozone forecasting, Environmetrics, 13, 759-774, 2002.

4. Guillas S., Doubly stochastic Hilbertian processes, Journal of Applied Probability, 39(3), 566-580, 2002.

5. Guillas S., Stein M.L., Wuebbles D.J., Xia J., Using chemistry-transport modeling in statistical analysis of stratospheric ozone trends from observations, J. Geophys. Res., 109(D22303), 2004.

6. Damon J., Guillas, S., Estimation and simulation of autoregressive Hilbertian processes with exogenous variables, Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, 8, 185-204, 2005.

7. Fern´ndez de Castro B., Guillas S., Gonz´lez Manteiga W., Functional samples and bootstrap for predicta a ing sulfur dioxide levels, Technometrics, 47(2), 212-222, 2005.

8. Guillas S., Tiao G.C., Wuebbles D.J., and Zubrow A., Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistrytransport model for the prediction of total column ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 525-537, 2006.

9. Miller A.J., Cai A., Tiao G.C., Wuebbles D.J., Flynn L.E., Yang S.K., Weatherhead E.C., Fioletov V., Petropavlovskikh I., Meng X.L., Guillas S., Nagatani R.M. and Reinsel G.C., Examination of ozonesonde data for trends and trend changes incorporating solar and arctic oscillation signals, J. Geophys. Res., 111(D13305), 2006.

10. Guillas S., Bao J., Choi Y., Wang Y. Statistical correction and downscaling of chemical transport model ozone forecasts over Atlanta, Atmos. Environ., 42 (6), 1338-1348, 2008.

11. Draghicescu D., Guillas S. and Wu W.B. Quantile curve estimation and visualization for non-stationary time series, J. Comput. Graph. Statist., 18(1), 1-20, 2009.

12. Bakare, A., Guillas, S., Morley, J., Simons R., A Two-Dimensional Spatial Statistical Model for Morphodynamic Seabed Modelling and Prediction, Paper 107, Proc. of Coast. Dynam. 2009, Tokyo, Japan, 7-11 September 2009.

13. Rougier, J., Guillas, S., Maute, A., Richmond, A. D., Expert Knowledge and Multivariate Emulation: The Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), Technometrics 51(4), 414-424, 2009.

14. Guillas, S., J. Rougier, A. Maute, A.D. Richmond, C.D. Linkletter, Bayesian calibration of the ThermosphereIonosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), Geosci. Model Dev. 2, 137-144, 2009.

15. Dabo-Niang S., Guillas S. Functional semiparametric partially linear model with autoregressive errors, J.

Multivariate Anal., 101(2), 307-315, 2010.

16. Guillas, S., Lai, M.-J., Bivariate splines for spatial functional regression models, J. Nonparametric Stat., 22(4), 477-497, 2010.

17. Guillas, S., Day, S.J., McGuire, W.J., Statistical analysis of ENSO and sea-floor seismicity in the eastern tropical Pacific, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 368(1919), 2481-2500, 2010.

18. Bakare, A. M., Simons, R. R., Morley, J., Guillas, S., Morphological evolution of the Great Yarmouth sandbank and channel system, Proceedings of 32nd Conference on Coastal Engineering (ICCE 2010), Shanghai, China June 30-July 5, 2010.

19. Guillas, S., Bakare, A., Morley, J., Simons R., Functional autoregressive forecasting of long-term seabed evolution, Journal of Coastal Conservation, 15(3), 337 - 351, 2011.

20. Glover, N., Guillas, S., Malki-Epshtein L., Statistical calibration of CFD modelling of street canyon flows, Building Simulation Conference, Sydney, 2011.

21. Ettinger, B., Guillas, S., Lai, M.-J., Bivariate splines for ozone concentration forecasting, Environmetrics 23(4), 317-328, 2012.

22. Galucci, M., Guillas, S., Vallianatos, F., Emulation of simulated earthquake catalogues, Acta Geophysica, 60(3), 699-718, 2012.

23. Sarri, A., Guillas, S., Dias, F. Statistical emulation of a landslide-generated tsunami model, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 12(6), 2003-2018, 2012.

24. T. S. Stefanakis, F. Dias, N. Vayatis, S. Guillas, Long-wave runup on a plane beach behind a conical island, 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, Portugal, 24-28 September 2012.

25. A.-Y. Park, S. Guillas, I. Petropavlovskikh, Trends in stratospheric ozone profiles using functional mixed models, submitted.

26. N. Glover, S. Guillas, L. Malki-Epshtein, Bayesian calibration of the k-epsilon turbulence model, submitted.


1. Guillas S., Rhomari N., Zhang, J. [in French], Statistical methods for the prediction of pollution peaks, LCSQA report, 2000.

2. Guillas, S., discussion of “Parameter Estimation for Differential Equations: A Generalized Smoothing Approach” by Ramsay, Hooker, Campbell and Cao, J. Royal Stat. Soc., Ser B, 69 (5), 741-796, 2007.

3. Guillas, S., discussion of “Geostatistical inference under preferential sampling”, by P.J. Diggle, R. Menezes, T. Su, J. Royal Stat. Soc., Ser C, 59 (2), 191-232, 2010.

4. Guillas, S., discussion of “Riemann manifold Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods”, by M.

Girolami and B. Calderhead, J. Royal Stat. Soc., Ser B 73 (2), 1-37, 2011.

PRESENTATIONS over 2005-2011 (invited or peer-reviewed) Seminar, University Paris 6, France. June 2005 Seminar, Institut Pierre Simon de Laplace-CNRS, France. June 2005 Seminar, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chauss´es, France. June 2005 e World Conference on Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Cyprus, 28-31 October, 2005 ISYE Statistics Seminar, Georgia Tech. November 2005 12th International Conference on Statistics, Combinatorics, Mathematics and Applications, Auburn, AL, December 2-4, 2005 European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2006, Vienna, Austria, April 2006.

Seminar. Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Spain, June 2006.

Multivariate Methods in Environmetrics, Chicago, IL, October 2006.

2006-07 Education and Outreach Program SAMSI Two-Day Undergraduate Workshop, Research Triangle Park, NC, November 2006.

Seminar, CISES, University of Chicago, February 2007.

SAMSI/MUCM Mid-Program Workshop, SAMSI, Research Triangle Park, NC, April 2007.

Seminar, Applied mathematics, University of Georgia, April 2007.

SAMSI/NCAR Workshop on Application of Random Matrices Theory and Methods, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, May 2007.

Transition Workshop, SAMSI, Research Triangle Park, NC, May 2007.

SAMSI/NCAR Workshop on Application of Statistics to Numerical Models: New Methods and Case Studies, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, May 2007.

6th Spatial Econometrics and Statistics workshop, Dijon, France, June 2007.

The 27th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, New York City, June 2007.

Seminar, Statistics, University of Georgia, August 2007.

Platinum Jubilee Conference of the Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India, January 2008.

Seminar, University of Bristol, UK, May 2008.

Joint Meeting of the Statistical Society of Canada and the Soci´t´ Fran¸aise de Statistique, Ottawa, Canada, ee c May 2008.

Seminar, Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge University, UK, June 2008.

International Workshop on Recent Advances in Time Series Analysis, Cyprus, June 2008.

Seminar, Universit´ Charles-de-Gaulle-Lille 3, France, September 2008.

e Seminar, University of Southampton, UK, November 2008.

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